The gap between security hawks and doveish global investors is growing
, a luxury-goods giant, is the largest stock in France’s40 index, making up 13% of market capitalisation. On April 12th the company reported a 17% year-on-year jump in sales in the first quarter. Hermès International, Kering and Pernod Ricard, other luxury brands, account for another 8%. The companies make money not only from Chinese outlets, but from Chinese tourists in Europe. All have benefited enormously from the end of the Chinese government’s zero-covid approach.
In part this reflects concrete realities. Whatever happens to diplomatic relations, rich Chinese consumers are unlikely to cease buying handbags. Some firms with lots of Chinese exposure, includingGroup and Rio Tinto, two miners, have weathered geopolitical disputes. Although the Chinese government can shuffle the source of its commodities, as a recent short-lived ban on Australian coal demonstrated, such tweaks are ultimately limited by the commodities the country must import.
These firms sit at the top of any list of those that will suffer if Sino-American relations worsen. If they are planning for life after China, they are disguising it well. Last month, Texas Instruments doubled down on a commitment to invest more in the country. Qualcomm has partnerships with China Mobile, a telecommunications giant, and a range of Chinese handset manufacturers.
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What luxury stocks say about the new cold warThe gap between security hawks and doveish global investors is growing
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