Following are five big themes likely to dominate thinking of investors and trade...
- Following are five big themes likely to dominate thinking of investors and traders in the coming week and the Reuters stories related to them.
But the curve has sent a false alarm at least once before and some believe it is doing so again, above all because huge Fed purchases have depressed longer yields. Huge issuance of short-term debt is also likely to have contributed to the flattening. Negotiations to try to end a 10-month-old trade war between the world’s biggest economies are continuing, and markets have taken heart from China’s decision to stick with the talks. Another factor is China’s central bank, which assured markets it had “rich” policy tools to cope with external uncertainties. Weak economic data can only cement that resolve.The world economy seems to be shifting into a lower gear but Brent crude futures are holding above $70 a barrel, up 30% this year.
None of these issues will be resolved anytime soon. Iran for one is threatening to retaliate against U.S. sanctions by breaching a nuclear pact signed in 2015. Sanctions have failed to dislodge Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro but they are likely to cut oil exports further in May, after the expiry of an April 28 deadline for U.S. firms to complete existing deals.Few U.S. data series have been as choppy in recent months as retail sales.
The report comes soon after Trump imposed new tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports, but it is far too soon to see a meaningful impact from the trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Shoppers will probably not start reacting to sticker shock until the third quarter.Once again it seems there’s good reason to fret over Italy, the euro zone’s third-biggest economy — and one of its most indebted.
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