The U.S. Southwest has been suffering a drought that began at the close of the 20th century—now officially known as a megadrought, due to its intensity and longevity. Climate scientist Richard Seager has been studying it since the start. Much of his research has been on the role of natural variability versus human-induced climate change.
have boomed. That includes demand from agriculture, which is far and away the main user. So already the challenges are immense. Now the question is how that situation is going to evolve in coming decades with intensifying climate change.Using climate modeling, we have shown that the megadrought, defined in terms of summer soil moisture, has been driven by a reduction in precipitation in the cool December–May season.
Many of your colleagues say that warming climate has played the main role in the drought, in that higher temperatures have been the main factor in sucking moisture out of soils. Are they right, wrong, or somewhere in between? There has been a lot of recent discussion about the fact that global warming was expected to produce a warmer tropical Pacific, yet, as you point out, we are seeing the opposite. Does this mean the models we use to predict the future are off?
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