It could take until the end of 2022 for annual inflation to slow to the pace that used to be the norm
thing that proved transitory about inflation in America in 2021 was the consensus that it would subside. The left-hand chart shows that analysts consistently revised up their predictions, trailing reality. Consumer prices are now rising by nearly 7% compared with a year earlier, the fastest pace since 1982. What does the future hold? The right-hand chart presents two scenarios.
In the first, month-on-month inflation immediately falls back to its pre-pandemic trajectory. Even so, it would take until the end of 2022 for annual inflation to slow to the 2% pace that used to be the norm. In the second case, consumer prices rise at the same monthly clip seen over the past year. Annual inflation would soar to nearly 8% in February, and stay elevated.
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