Changes in the yield curve - a measure of the gap between long- and short-term b...
LONDON - Changes in the yield curve - a measure of the gap between long- and short-term borrowing costs - appear to be regaining some of their power to forecast economic developments in the United States and Britain, Bank of England researchers said on Tuesday.
Such a pattern reflects expectations in financial markets that a central bank will cut interest rates in response to an economic downturn. However, the BoE research showed that one of the most commonly used metrics - the difference between yields on two-year and 10-year British government bonds - had not recovered the forecasting power it lost after 2008.BoE Governor Mark Carney said in May that markets had underestimated the BoE’s willingness to raise interest rates, and that the flatness partly reflected Brexit jitters - which could clear up if a deal is done between London and Brussels - as well as global trade tensions.
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