Outcome risky to predict for investors waiting for pivot in bank policy
stunned the markets in December by widening the targeted trading band for its yield curve control policy, investors have sensed the prospect of a historic pivot by the last big central bank to defend an ultra-loose monetary regime.
Expectations of a possible switch in policy have triggered a month-long surge in Japanese bank stocks, which stand to profit from rising interest rates and the end of the BoJ regime. Fixed income trading has meanwhile pushed the yield on the benchmarkto the top of the central bank’s target, producing ever greater pressure on Kuroda to abandon trying to control the yield curve.
Benjamin Shatil, a foreign exchange strategist at JPMorgan, said that, on paper, a decision by the BoJ to end yield curve control would imply a 4-5 per cent increase in the yen. But he added that in the circumstances markets would be liable to overshoot. Kenta Tadaide, a senior foreign exchange strategist at Daiwa Securities, said expectations among investors, particularly in the short-term Japanese government bond markets, had moved beyond what the BoJ was likely to do over the next 12 months.
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