Some analysts say the attack on Ukraine could speed the world’s transition away from fossil fuels, especially in Europe. Others say the war could reveal just how dependent people are on fossil fuels.
It was 1973 when a war between Israel and a coalition of Arab states led Saudi Arabia and other oil producers to impose an embargo on crude shipments to the United States.
Those competing trends make it difficult to predict the future of the world’s energy systems. Russia’s attack on Ukraine further complicates the forecast. “The stuff coming out of the mouths of European leaders has never come out of their leaders’ mouths before,” Tsafos said. “There is a different strategic resolve coming out of Europe, and if you’re not factoring that into your model, I think you’re missing something.”
“I really do think where you stand on Russia depends on where you sit with regard to peak oil demand,” said McNally, who believes demand will grow. “I think we are a year or two away from looking out the window and saying, ‘Oh, my God, we’re not decarbonizing as fast as we need.’ If I’m right about the inability of Russia to grow, it is going to be a really big problem.”
Russia produces 11 million barrels of oil a day, making it the world’s third-largest producer behind the United States and Saudi Arabia. The country exports between 5 million and 6 million barrels per day of crude, with about half of that destined for Europe. Another 1.6 million barrels is shipped to China, according to a recent analysis by Amy Myers Jaffe, managing director of the Climate Policy Lab at Tufts University.
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