It is still early days. The pain may be on the way
growth as priced by financial markets . This currently indicates growth of 3.4%, versus 3.7% before. And as the JPMorgan analysts illustrated with their metaphor, economists have two worries. The first is uncertainty. If people fear a banking crisis and the accompanying economic pain, they may cut consumption and investment. The second relates to credit. Financial institutions, fearing losses, may pull back on lending, depriving firms of much-needed capital.
Many economists worry more about the second problem: credit. If firms cannot get their hands on finance, they cannot grow so easily. On March 22nd Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, referred to a “very large body of literature” when asked about the connection between tighter credit conditions and economic activity. In the years after the global financial crisis of 2007-09, broken credit markets held back both short-term economic recovery and long-term productivity growth.
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