Researchers think global warming could help spawn more dangerous supercell storms. But the science is far from certain
But the science around climate change and supercell storms—the anvil-shaped formations that form most killer tornadoes, along with large, dangerous hail—is much less clear. Climate change is likely to bring more humidity to some hurricane regions, as well as more atmospheric instability, both essential ingredients for those big thunderstorms.
To get around that challenge, the researchers at Northern Illinois University used detailed weather models to simulate future storm formation on a much more localized scale, a task that took enormous amounts of time and computational power, and generated gargantuan quantities of data. “We did this for 45 years of simulations,” says Walker Ashley, a professor in the earth, atmosphere, and environment department at Northern Illinois University. “That’s 700 terabytes of data.
Ashley cautions, though, that more work needs to be done in the field to help solidify those findings. “I don’t want to say that our study is the end all,” he says. “I think it’s actually the start of a broader push towards trying to understand how severe storms will change under climate change.” He also notes that climate change is only one piece of the puzzle in trying to understand what puts people in danger from killer tornadoes.
“[It’s] what we call the expanding bullseye,” Ashley says. “A tornado that occurred 50 years ago outside of Jackson, Mississippi, probably wouldn’t have hit much. But now the impact is far more substantial.”
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