The Chinese government has announced a relaxation of its rigid coronavirus-control policies. What comes next?
Certainly, his treatment of domestic business has led to a huge amount of damage to private entrepreneurship in China. Privately owned tech companies in China have had a decline in market valuation of close to three trillion dollars. That’s a big number. Xi Jinping’s perspective is that private capital is great as long as it makes China wealthier and also technologically more advanced. But if it becomes so big that it challenges the power of the Party, that is intolerable.
There are not that many intensive-care beds in China relative to its enormous population. Even in major cities, such as Beijing and Shanghai, this is kind of a problem. It’s an even more dire situation in some third-tier and fourth-tier cities, where the population is older, too., we saw some hospitals reach their limits. They’ve had to set up beds outdoors. In China, the timing is not great. It’s winter. It’ll be pretty cold through March.
You seem to be saying that Xi felt that he could not handle a big wave of death politically. Why is that? Leaders across the world from all kinds of different governments made different calculations. Even going back to the Nineteenth Party Congress, and the Eighteenth Party Congress, Xi has said publicly that he would likeChina was able to do that. Even though, weirdly, diplomatically, there wasn’t a lot of direct contact with other countries, because China was in total lockdown. Now Xi realizes that you do need to have some contact with the rest of the world. We’re seeing this big diplomatic blitz. But if the “China model” falters economically, that’s not good for China’s image.
He clearly does not play that game. If Xi wants to demote him, promote him—I doubt that he’s lobbying on his own behalf at all. So you can trust him to give relatively objective opinions, because he doesn’t have any political ambition of his own. In this case, I suspect that it would take someone like him advocating for a big change of policy for Xi to say, “O.K., because I think this person doesn’t have mixed motivation, I trust him. I will go ahead and revise policies.” Something like that.
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