Why U.S. Spies Can Watch Russian Troops but Not Guess Putin’s Next Move

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Why U.S. Spies Can Watch Russian Troops but Not Guess Putin’s Next Move
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The U.S. can capture enemy communications and watch from satellites, but recruiting spies in a regime like Putin’s is difficult and risky

WASHINGTON—The CIA and other U.S. intelligence agencies beefed up their efforts to gather Moscow’s secrets after Russia’s surprise 2014 annexation of Crimea, but they still struggle for the kind of access to President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle that would reveal his plans and intentions, according to former U.S. intelligence officials.

The fruits and limits of U.S. spying on Russia have been on unusual public display in recent months as the Biden administration has openly described intelligence it said points to a

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