Mark Mellman says Biden won’t lose Michigan because of the war in Gaza.
How worried should Joe Biden be about the Muslim American vote in Michigan? What’s the fallout from Chuck Schumer’s speech lambasting Benjamin Netanyahu? And which progressive critics of Israel are actually in danger of losing their primaries?
This conversation has been edited for length and clarity, with help from Deep Dive Senior Producer Alex Keeney and Producer Kara Tabor. If you look at the exit polls, about 1 percent of the Michigan electorate is Muslim American. So it’s large compared to other places. In Nevada, Muslims register 0 percent of the electorate. So much larger than that, but not really very large.
The Arab American voter, potentially different situation, no question about it. My point about them is that they’re a relatively small proportion of the electorate. Number one. The third point is that one has to understand all sides of the equation here, which is to say, is it possible that you lose some Muslim voters or some younger voters? It’s possible. Is it possible you gain some other voters? Yes it is.For example, evangelical Christians are 26 percent of Michigan; 28 percent of them voted for Joe Biden last time. If that got to 30, 31 or 32 percent that would more than cancel out a 100 percent change in the Muslim-American vote.
At the same time, I have to tell you that a lot of people in the pro-Israel community were deeply concerned, deeply hurt and angry about aspects of that speech.Let me give you a couple of points. When was the last time an American leader has gone to a democracy and said, “Have an early election, because I don’t like the person who’s running your country?” We tend not to do that.
And also, he’s been very divisive on this judicial reform issue, so more than half the country was ready to get rid of him already. And now just about everybody’s ready to get rid of him. I think it was vastly overstated. Every data journalist said this is no big deal. The Nate Silvers, the Kyle Kondiks, the people who focus on data said, “Uncommitted got 2.5 percent more in this year with a huge campaign than it did against Barack Obama when he had no opponent and nobody was asking for an uncommitted vote.”
Now, the question is, could Hamas be disarmed and dismantled in some different way? There are people who think, “Yes.” But none of them have actually been able to come forward with a concrete suggestion about how to do that. Yes. And one in Texas. So that’s one part of it. The second part is where we can defeat some of these anti-Israel incumbents. They’re very few of them to begin with, and they’re even fewer who are vulnerable.You have to look at Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush and say those are the two that are the most vulnerable.
But look, it’s not going to be the pro-Israel people that are tearing the convention apart. It’s going to be the anti-Israel people that are tearing the convention apart. So it’s not our folks. There’s nothing we can do about it except hope and pray that people understand the importance of this election and aren’t willing to throw it to Donald Trump just to be able to perform on the streets of Chicago or in the convention hall.
Second, until recently, it was not 100 percent clear to everybody in the country that Donald Trump was going to be the nominee, and Donald Trump was defined only by his legal issues. Now he’s talking about a “blood bath” and he’s doing all the Trumpian things that he does, and it’s getting attention. It focuses the public mind on what’s wrong with Donald Trump.
So, there’s a lot of evidence of these impairments. Democrats, not the president, but other Democrats can and should be talking about this. But the reality is he’s going to display it. He’s going to show it to everybody — Donald Trump is — because he can’t help it, it’s a problem he has.His strength is that he empathizes with people. And historically, there’s nothing that’s been more important in people’s ultimate political judgment than who really cares about them.
What do I mean by that? During Trump’s first campaign, there was a period at which half of Republican women said they would not vote for Donald Trump. Yet they did. We saw this with Bill Clinton’s impeachment. People said, “Well, if he had sex with Monica Lewinsky, should he resign?” “Oh, yes, of course he should resign.” Then it became clear that he did have sex with Monica Lewinsky, and people said, “No, no, he shouldn’t resign.
Unless you sort of describe the circumstances, the effects, the conditions, you don’t really have anything that’s very useful. So that’s another example of the kind of questions that are not very good. And look, we all do this because we get paid to do it, and that is to ask people about arcane pieces of legislation that they know nothing about and get them to say “yes” so that our clients can forward that material all over the known world.Yes, I’m sure you do. I’m sure you do.
So exactly how those are parsed out is important, and I don’t know the answer to that because I haven’t really done the deep dive in the exits to see. It is in an arithmetic sense, which is to say that there are not enough Trump lovers or Biden lovers, to give either one a majority.
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