Russia is losing its war in Ukraine and now four regions say they will hold self-styled referendums.
President Vladimir Putin is expected to back annexation, just as he did in Crimea in 2014
Just as his 2014 vote in Crimea was rejected as a sham by the international community, so are these, condemned already by the leaders of France and Germany. The regional capital, Kherson city, is not a safe place right now, with Russian soldiers struggling to hold back a big Ukrainian counter-offensive. The central administration building was hit by a series of missiles only last week. A secure vote is impossible.
Russia's proxy leaders may have been keen to stage votes for several months, but this snap decision just three days in advance smacks of desperation. Russia may well demand that Nato countries stop arming Ukraine but none of them will recognise the votes. As the Institute for the Study of War points out, Ukraine has already hit Russian military targets in Crimea, and there was no Russian retaliation.Until now, Russia's president has stopped short of declaring war, labelling this campaign a "special military operation". That has prevented full mobilisation and there is some talk that he may be on the verge of taking that step.
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