Tropical Storm Bret continues to march westward toward the Lesser Antilles, and a push into the Caribbean is highly likely.
The forecast changeSome computer models organized the system quickly and moved it more northwestward out into the open Atlantic.Bret ended up staying a weak tropical storm, which means a northward track is no longer possible.The major computer models are now in high agreement Bret will continue tracking west into the Caribbean Sea.
Clearly, a system moving westward has a better chance of impacting the area than one that heads out to sea.It is likely Bret will be a strong tropical storm as it approaches the Lesser Antilles on Thursday.The central and eastern Caribbean features high wind shear, which is bad news for tropical systems.Bret will be severely impacted by wind shear, and will be just a tropical wave by the weekend.
What’s left of Bret will likely float into the western Caribbean, possibly impacting Central America. While a westward track is normally a bit concerning for our area, shear will break apart Bret and the system will not be heading toward our area.
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