NFL quarterbacks are throwing for fewer yards this season, and betting markets don’t appear to have caught up.
It’s no secret that the passing game has taken over NFL offenses in recent years, thanks to its effectiveness at the two most important offensive tasks: gaining yards and scoring points. Quarterbacks have become more accurate and agile, while wide receivers and tight ends have become faster and more skilled, making it easier to connect on long passes. Rule changes offered more protection to quarterbacks and receivers, encouraging more audacious throws.
Usage of Cover-4 — four defensive backs, typically two safeties and two cornerbacks, each responsible for a deep quarter of the field — is also on the rise . This coverage helps prevent deep passing plays by dividing the deep part of the field into four sections, making it more challenging for offenses to exploit the deep zones.
“Whether it’s explosive passes, explosive runs, more runs, less runs, more passes — it doesn’t matter,”matter. When defenses prevent deep passes and employ more restrictive coverage, wide receivers have less room to run after the catch. Yards after the catch for wide receivers reached a peak of 4.6 per completion in 2013 and has decreased to 4.1 so far in 2023 — a slow decline, but a decline nonetheless. Wide receivers haven’t finished a season averaging less than 4.
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