A lot can change still, but he's some back-of-the-envelope handicapping of where the Best Picture Oscar race stands
Photo-Illustration: Vulture, Columbia Pictures, Universal Pictures, Warner Bros. and Neon The knives are back in, the gems have been cut, and the bombshells did not go off. With Monday’s Oscar nominations, the Best Picture field has been officially narrowed down to nine lucky contenders.
8. Marriage Story In their fervor to reward the season’s big sweeping epics, voters seem to be slightly downgrading Noah Baumbach’s nuanced domestic drama. Even so, silver linings abound: The film looks poised to come out of Oscar night with the Supporting Actress trophy, and could add a second win in Original Screenplay if the race breaks right. And Baumbach and Greta Gerwig both missing the cut in Best Director may be just the kind of shared hardship that brings couples closer together.
6. Jojo Rabbit It’s remarkable how closely Jojo Rabbit is hewing to the path previously trod by Green Book, a film it would not seem on the surface to have much in common with: Both films premiered at TIFF, where they won the People’s Choice Award, then bowed to muted reviews and a slightly underwhelming box-office performance, before ultimately being embraced by awards voters .
4. The Irishman As Sasha Stone notes, The Irishman is actually the only film to nail all the strongest predictors of a Best Picture win: top nominations from DGA and SAG, and nods in Oscar’s writing, directing, acting, and editing categories. So why does it no longer feel like a front-runner? Blanking at the Globes didn’t help, and if the film was truly such a juggernaut, you’d think Robert De Niro would have gotten nominated somewhere.
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