Over the past half-century, many promising economies have become ensnared in middle-income mediocrity. How has that picture changed in the last ten years?
Answering the question depends on the definition of middle-income employed. According to the World Bank’s official classifications, a country becomes high-income only when itsper person exceeds around $13,200. By that standard, China looks set to escape the middle-income trap in a year or two.
The result is that 23 countries which were middle-income in 1960 now qualify as high-income—more progress than one might have expected over the past difficult decade. Graduates include three countries in the Gulf and six members of the. Malaysia has joined the Asian tigers in the high-income bracket. The Seychelles, an island nation off Africa, has also crossed the threshold.
The list could in fact be expanded further. Seven countries that are now high-income by the “China 2030” definition did not exist as sovereign nations in 1960, so do not appear on the chart. These include the Czech and Slovak republics, as well as several former members of the Soviet Union: Estonia, Kazakhstan, Lithuania, Latvia and Turkmenistan.
The country that once dominated them, Russia, also moved from middle-income in 1960 to high-income in 2022. Its economy has withstood Vladimir Putin’s war better than expected. Yet itsper person could fall below the high-income threshold this year. A Russian reformer once quipped that his country had been trapped in middle-income for two centuries. Mr Putin is doing his best to return it to that state.
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