There is some genuine suspense as we head into the fall season, as Democrats are doing far better than expected
, a midterm that has been often compared to 2022, should create some jitters for the currently ebullient Democrats:
Democrats clung to a small lead for most of the period between early March and early September, but Republicans seized a lead by late September that was not relinquished, largely holding between two and four percentage points. On Election Day, Republicans retained the House and flipped the Senate.in 2014, netting nine seats.
There were two recent midterms, in 1998 and 2002, that broke the mold, with the president’s party making gains in the late generic congressional ballot indicator, and ultimately gaining House and Senate seats. In both cases, the president’s job approval rating was above 60 as voters went to the polls.
that Democrats might need as much as an eight-point lead in the generic congressional ballot to win a House majority in November. That may be a bit pessimistic, but there is no question Democrats under-performed the polls in 2020.In past elections, the polls themselves tended to shift toward Republicans after pollsters moved from samples based on registered voters to likely voters.
At present, quite a few pollsters are already using likely voter screens. And the pro-Republican effect of the “switchover” has probably abated as Democrats have recently improved their performance among older and suburban voters.
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