Here's what you should know about the Jazz's positioning and odds of success headed into Sunday afternoon's lottery.
People look at the draft lottery order during the NBA basketball draft lottery in Chicago, Tuesday, May 16, 2023. After staying put in the NBA Draft Lottery of 2023, the Jazz go into the 2024 edition in a similar spot. This year, they enter as the team with the eighth-highest number of combinations in their favor, giving them a 6% chance at the top pick.
There, a selection of 14 balls will be put into a ping-pong ball hopper, out of which four balls will be drawn, one at a time. Math tells us there are 1,001 possible combinations when you do this, and the Jazz have 60 of those combinations assigned to them. In general, bigger initial numbers drawn are good for the Jazz, pushing results away from the worst teams in the league like Detroit, Washington, Charlotte and Portland, and towards more unlikely results.
Beyond that, teams jumping up above the Jazz can also push them downwards. There’s a 34.48% chance that the team stays at the No. 8 position, but the second most likely outcome is that they draft at No. 9, which has a 32.09% chance of happening. Two teams could skip them — a 6.75% chance — which leads to the Jazz drafting No. 10.
While team execs have stated they don’t have a preference on whether they convey the pick this year or in future years, it’s an interesting conundrum regarding which would be better for the Jazz. On one hand, giving up the No. 11 pick would be a seemingly worst-case scenario for a top-10 protected pick owed over multiple years. On the other hand, this is generally regarded as a weak draft.
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