What To Expect From The Fed’s Next Interest Rate Decision
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Jr. Federal Reserve Board Building following a Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday, July 26, 2023, in Washington. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to set short-term interest rates again on September 20. Markets suggest the Fed will most likely hold interest rates steady, after a 0.25-percentage-point increase at the July meeting.
There will be two new months of data for most economic series before the Fed’s decision, so a rate increase is possible if inflation numbers are dire, or if the economy continues to run much hotter than the Fed would like. Conversely, it is highly unlikely the Fed would cut rates, absent some major economic shock. Specifically, the futures market, as assessed by the, estimates around a 1 in 3 chance that the Fed will raise rates either in September or at the following meeting in November. That said, the bond market’s base case assessment is that we’re already most likely at peak rates with the current 5.25%-5.5% interest rate band for this cycle. So rates will most likely remain unchanged.
As of the most recent projections from June, the Fed was looking for two more interest rate hikes in 2023. One of those has already happened in July. So, if projections don’t meaningfully change and September’s meeting doesn’t see a move in rates, then the Fed may confirm that another hike is coming in November or December.
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