The media is full of stories about a bear market, which is usually defined as a fall of 20 per cent or more—but what is happening needs to be put into perspective.
After staging a rally on Monday, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose two per cent, the stock market stalled on Tuesday. At the close of trading, the Dow had eked out a small gain, but the broader S. & P. 500 index was down nearly one per cent, and the Nasdaq composite was down more than two per cent.
To put it slightly differently, during a period of twenty-seven months in which the economy has been subjected to virtually unprecedented strains—lengthy shutdowns, pervasive supply-chain problems, and, most recently, a global energy-price shock—the stock market, as a whole, has done pretty well.
Understandably, the Biden Administration touts those numbers. “The United States economy has resilience,” Cecilia Rouse, the chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said in an online panel last week.
What will happen to household finances, consumer spending, and hiring as Fed Chair Jay Powell and his colleagues raise interest rates to slow the economy and bring down inflation? That is the fundamental economic question this year. Last week, Powell reaffirmed that the Fed will keep tightening monetary policy until it sees “clear and convincing” evidence that inflation is dropping toward the central bank’s target of two per cent.
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