So, what happened to yesterday’s storms? That’s a question some of you were asking after they didn’t materialize in the D.C. metro area, but rather stayed well to the north and well to the south. We sometimes call this a “D.C. split.”
said: “Whether they congeal into a solid line is questionable, but even hit-or-miss storms look to pack a punch.”We also correctly observed that if there were storms, they would most likely occur after 5 or 6 p.m. in the D.C. region.
No one can know for sure why it ended up a total miss. But temperatures a couple of degrees lower than they could have been because of some midday cloud cover, humidity just a tad lower than it could have been, a small, hard-to-predict pocket of sinking air overhead at midday, and a cold front too far to the west to enhance storm development probably all played a role.
“Had the cold front been a lot closer to the DMV, a broader region of storms would have been more broadly triggered,” said Jeff Halverson, Capital Weather Gang’s severe weather expert. “Secondly, while the DMV as a whole had a very unstable air mass, the air was likely sinking downward in the lower half of the atmosphere, suppressing [storm development]. The sinking pocket of air may have been caused by a small feature that scooted through during the morning and afternoon.
But Monday was enough of a threat for severe storms, including the potential for damaging winds and hail, that we had to communicate that possibility and relay the severe thunderstorm watch issued by the National Weather Service, while also trying not to overhype. We welcome your feedback and will continue to strive for accurate forecasts that are effectively communicated, express our confidence level, and articulate both the more likely and less likely scenarios.
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