Will retail sales allow the dollar to extend its recovery? The dollar traded on the back foot for the better half of this week due to dovish remarks
After US CPIs, US retail sales may also impact Fed hike expectations. Will the UK inflation numbers increase the chances for another BoE hike? Aussie and Kiwi traders await Australia jobs report and New Zealand’s CPI. China’s GDP could also impact those commodity-linked currencies. by Fed officials who suggested that the surge in Treasury yields since they last met has done the work for them, implying that another hike before the end of the year may not be needed.
They believe that a final hike is more likely to happen after the turn of the year, with a 55% probability assigned to the March 2024 decision. The only data point corroborating more interest rate hikes by the BoE is wage growth, which remains elevated. Thus, for the hike probability to rise, just another print of strong weekly earnings may not be enough to change investors’ opinion.
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