Many food items have risen in cost - and could be about to rise even higher.
The squeeze on fuel and energy costs will also push food prices higher, because a lot of agriculture is very energy intensive, it said. Fertiliser prices have also nearly tripled since last year.
Ukrainian roads, ports and warehouses have been heavily damaged in the war, and so the volume of exports will be reduced "for years to come" IGD said, putting pressure on supplies of sunflower oil and wheat. The UK gets about 40% of its food from outside the country, so it is exposed to global food price rises.The Bank of England expects inflation to fall back next year, but IGD said higher inflation could last longer if there are more food export bans or more trade disruption due to new Brexit border arrangements in 2023.The rise in food prices will hit vulnerable families the hardest, IGD chief economist James Walton said.
"With prices for energy, motor fuel and food rising fast, more households are moving into this vulnerable group."
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