Ukraine and Russia together produce nearly 30 percent of the world’s traded wheat. Without them, soaring food prices and shortages could initiate a wave of instability
its poor condition. China is expected to import more grains this year as well, just to meet demand, says Arnaud Petit, executive director of the International Grains Council, which monitors grain trade around the globe.
“If we get a climate shock in one of the world’s breadbaskets this year it will be catastrophic,” says Hatfield. “It will make 2008 and 2012 pale by comparison.” Many U.S. farmers are already feeling the pinch. Justin Bruch spent seven years dealing with supply chain issues as a corporate farmer in Ukraine, managing up to 60,000 hectares before coming back home in 2014 after Russia invaded Crimea and the Donbas regions. He now heads an agricultural venture capital firm in Omaha, Nebraska, while helping his brother run the family farm near Emmetsburg, Iowa.
“The land that is under war activities—none of it will be planted in my opinion,” Bubnov writes. “And with current weather situation very soon it will be too late to plant anyway. All this will decrease total potential export capacity of grain and even if we, as a country, produce a bit less than usual—how will it be shipped? Sea port infrastructures are getting destroyed and railway capacity is not enough for big quantities of grain anyway.
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