Wall Street takes bets on which major central bank will blink first

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Wall Street takes bets on which major central bank will blink first
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The Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank have emerged as the major central banks most likely to change course in the next two months.

On the basis of market expectations, the first G10 central bank to cut rates will be the Swiss National Bank.

Goldman Sachs last week pushed back its projections for rate cuts from May to June, citing several key inflation indicators that look "on the firmer side." Analysts at Capital Economics said the steep decline meant inflation "looks sure to undershoot the SNB's Q1 forecast of 1.8%." "We think the SNB will want to wait to ensure that domestic price pressures stemming from higher rents no longer pose upside risks to inflation ," Switzerland's largest bank said in a note last week.

"If inflation is going to settle around 2%, rather than fall all the way back to the 10-year average , there is no reason to delay the demise of negative interest rate and yield curve control policies," said Kit Juckes, the French bank's global head of foreign exchange strategy.A significant majority of analysts expect the BOJ to end its eight-year stretch of negative interest rates in April, along with its yield curve control policy.

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