Researchers need to get much choosier in how they use climate model results to gauge the impacts of ClimateChange, argues a group of climate scientists.
that eschewed global modeling results and instead relied on paleoclimate and observational records to identify Earth’s climate sensitivity. It found that the value sits somewhere between 2.6°C and 3.9°C. The divergence in sensitivity estimates is a “sobering example of the complexity of the climate system,” says Christopher Field, a Stanford University climate scientist who focuses on impacts.
Still, many of these models render the world better than their predecessors, and the centers that produced them have been open about diagnosing the problem, Marvel says. “They’re to be commended.” But it will take years before the centers can produce new projections for broad use. Although IPCC rose to the challenge, it didn’t do a great job telling everyone about the actual problem, says Hausfather, himself an IPCC co-author. “A large number of our colleagues had no idea that the IPCC did this,” he says. And since then, dozens of published studies have used projections based on the raw average of all CMIP6 models.
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