USD/BRL seen at 5.25 by year-end – Rabobank – by MSalordFX USDBRL Brazil Banks
released the latest FOMC meeting’s minutes, two Fed hawks said they would slow pace after July’s meeting decision while June’s payrolls surprise to the upside again. Domestically, June’s CPI inflation starts to show the temporary fuel-taxes cut impact of the recently approved PLP18 bill, but the key vote on the social benefits bill was postponed to next week. Over the week, the DXY dollar index appreciated 1.8%, the USDBRL ended up appreciating 1.5% , the Ibovespa rose 1.
“We still see a 50-bp hike at the August meeting, then likely staying put until yearend. Even though we expect a longer Selic hiking cycle than at the beginning of 2022, we believe the Fed’s recent display of hawkishness and the intensification of the traditional electoral cycle will end up weighing on the BRL and other local assets going forward. By year-end we expect the BRL to trade at 5.25.”Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties.
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