US: Jobless Claims show a recession has not started, but it might not be far – Wells Fargo – by MSalordFX Recession Employment UnitedStates Banks
since March. The recent trend in jobless continuing claims adds weight to the argument that the US economy is not currently in recession, explained analysts at Wells Fargo. However, they warn that the recent uptick resembles the months that preceded prior recessions, suggesting that the start of a recession may not be far off.“Initial jobless claims have been trending higher since early April in one of the clearest signs that labor market conditions have begun to deteriorate.
“Whether the U.S. economy may already be in a recession is likely to have minimal bearing on the course ofpolicy in the near term, however. With inflation still raging and FOMC members, including Chair Powell, acknowledging that an “over-tight” labor market is contributing to price pressures, we suspect the Fed will be undeterred by the recent slowing in activity both inside and outside the labor market, and it will push ahead with raising the fed funds rate to around 4% in the coming months.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
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