US Dollar Weekly Forecast: USD to Remain Supported via Fed, ECB Policy Divergence

Strong growth, inflation and jobs data keeps US rates on hold, while disinflation and stagnant growth in the EU tees up a June rate cut. The likely policy divergence favours USD

EUR/USD powered through the 50 and 200-day SMAs, falling through the 38.2% Fib retracement of the 2023 decline, and the 1.0700. The descent even witnessed a close below the 23.6% Fib retracement, potentially opening up a move towards the 2023 low.

US inflation data provided the launchpad for the latest bullish move in USD/JPY, into a very dangerous zone. It has been well documented that 152.00 was the highest level that Japanese officials could tolerate before intervening in the FX market to strengthen the Japanese yen. USD/JPY suffers from a lack of recent upside target levels, with the next best indication at the April 1990 high of 160.00. Former FX diplomat, Watanabe suggested the authorities may not intervene until the pair reaches 155.00 but even if that is the case, chasing the market higher from here poses a terrible risk-to-reward ratio. Prior intervention saw the yen claw back around 500 pips in the moments that followed the decisive action and eventually saw a sustained decline in USD/JPY.

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