US Dollar Index stays depressed below 108.00 as Fed hawks retreat – by anilpanchal7 DollarIndex Fed Recession RiskAppetite ECB
for June grew 1.0% MoM versus 0.8% expected and -0.1% prior whereas the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index edged higher to 51.5 in July's flash estimate, versus 49.9 expected and 50.0 prior. However, the Index of Consumer Expectations declined to its lowest level since May 1980 at 47.3. Further, the US Industrial Production also contracted by 0.2% MoM in June while the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index rose to 11.1 versus -2.0 expected and -1.2 prior.
Talking about the Fedspeak, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Friday that June's 75 basis points rate hike was a "big move" and added that the Fed wants policy transition to be orderly, as reported by Reuters. On the other hand, San Francisco President Mary Daly said on Friday that the "Fed is working on getting down inflation without stalling economy." Further, St.
It’s worth noting that the fear of the US recession also exerts downside pressure on the DXY. Fears of a second negative GDP print, which technically triggers US recession fears, appeared to have gained momentum after Friday’s Atlanta Fed GDPNow release. That said, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for 2Q growth is coming in at -1.5% versus -1.2% last. The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2022 is -1.5 percent on July 15, down from -1.2 percent on July 8.
Amid these plays, Wall Street closed higher and the US Treasury yields ended the week on a negative note. However, the S&P 500 Futures remain firmer around 3,870 while the US 10-year Treasury yields drop 1.1 basis points to 2.91% at the latest. Moving on, the pre-Fed silence and a light calendar could restrict DXY moves and may help the counter-trend traders to keep reins for a bit more days ahead of Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting, as well as Friday’s July PMIs.A daily closing below an ascending support line from July 06, now resistance around 108.25, directs DXY bears towards the previous resistance line from May 13, close to 106.50 by the press time.
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