Next week US CPI headlines the schedule of high importance data. This forecast considers how major currency pairs shape up ahead of the US CPI release
Traders have already pared rate hike odds of the Fed cutting in March and in early Q2 but the Fed has provided enough evidence that rates will come down this year, and that is likely to limit upside potential for the dollar in the absence of another massive surprise in incoming domestic data. Retail sales is expected to have pulled back in January, as would be expected after the holiday season, and could help to subdue the dollar.
Notable support and resistance for the pair points to a week where EUR/USD may react to incoming data intra-day but fail to follow through with added momentum.With the Bank of England seeing inflation return to target significantly faster than initially forecasted in November, you would be forgiven for thinking markets would position for imminent rate cuts. This has not been the case.
Uchida’s comments are followed closely as he is known for dropping hints around key developments. USD/JPY continues to grind higher as markets distance themselves from notions of imminent rate changes stemming from the BoJ. The 150 marker is near-term resistance, with 146.50 appearing as support. Recent BoJ commentary and the notable lack of concern around the weakening yen opens the door for another test of 150.
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