The USD’s post-CPI meltdown is one for the books: the worst daily performance of 2022; and USD/JPY paces for their worst weekly loss since the start of the pandemic. US yields, US real yields, and Fed hike odds have collapsed dramatically.
The surprising October US inflation report, coming in far below consensus forecasts, has provided a reprieve for risk assets. Rates markets have dramatically repriced expectations for the Federal Reserve rate hike path, with the main Fed rate expected to reach 4.875% by May 2023, down from its peak of 5.135% set after the November Fed meeting. US Treasury yields are down across the curve, with parts of the belly off by some -20-bps to -30-bps. US real yields are cratering as well.
and US stocks, the latter of which is having its best performance since April 2020, the net-result has been a US Dollar that has been absolutely wrecked, on pace for its worst daily performance of 2022.The DXY Index is losing bull flag support, and in turn, losing the uptrend from the February, August, and early-November swing lows. This may be indicative of a near-term top.
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