The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation measure, will be published on Friday by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) at 12:30 GMT.
The core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index is set to rise 0.3% MoM and 2.8% YoY in February. Markets see a strong chance of the Federal Reserve lowering the policy rate by 25 basis points in June. The revised Summary of Projections showed that policymakers upwardly revised end-2024 core PCE forecast to 2.6% from 2.4%.
Even if the monthly core PCE Price Index rises at a stronger pace than expected, it might not be enough to cause investors to reassess the possibility of another policy hold in June. Nevertheless, it could still provide a boost to the USD, with markets doubting the size of the total reduction in the policy rate. On the other hand, an increase of 0.2% or less in the monthly Core PCE Price Index could weigh on the USD.
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