The British defense ministry said on Saturday that Ukrainian forces have secured a key route in the east of the country.
Russia's"two subordinate main efforts" include capturing the port city of Mariupol and capturing the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Moscow would then seek"to negotiate a Kremlin-favorable ceasefire and claim that Russia has achieved its war aims," the assessment said.
The city has faced weeks of Russian shelling, with at least 5,000 residents killed, according to local authorities, and around 160,000 who remain face shortages of food, water and electricity.
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