U.S. inflation muted, economic outlook strengthening

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U.S. inflation muted, economic outlook strengthening
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U.S. labor costs increased steadily in the first quarter as a jump in transporta...

WASHINGTON - U.S. labor costs increased steadily in the first quarter as a jump in transportation and manufacturing wages was offset by small gains elsewhere, pointing to moderate inflation pressures even as the labor market tightens.

Citing cross-currents facing the economy, the U.S. central bank in March dropped its forecasts for any rate increases this year, halting a three-year policy tightening campaign. The Fed raised borrowing costs four times in 2018. The Employment Cost Index, the broadest measure of labor costs, rose 0.7 percent after advancing by the same margin in the fourth quarter, the Labor Department said. That lowered the year-on-year rate of increase in the ECI to 2.8 percent. Labor costs rose 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter, which was the largest gain since June 2008.

“The Fed puts more store in consumer confidence as a predictor of consumer spending behavior, and from this perspective the Fed should be reassured that the second quarter looks strong on the consumer spending front,” said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics in New York.

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