The Hollywood strikes 'may lead to a lack of fresh attractive content in the first half of 2024 and thus potentially a further acceleration in long-term viewing declines,' warns a Magna report. 'The loss in ratings will not be offset by pricing since Magna predicts low-single digit CPM inflation for the first time in 20 years.'
It now sees total ad spend growing 7-8 percent in the current third quarter and the fourth quarter, compared to 2.9 percent in the first half of the year, to bring full-year 2023 ad growth to 5.2 percent, up from Magna’s previous estimate of 4.2 percent, as unveiled in June. That means 2023 ad spending will hit $337 billion.
Looking at 2024, Magna raised its ad spend growth forecast from 5.0 percent to 5.6 percent, or 8.0 percent including cyclical spending, such as political ads. “Digital media owners will grow ad sales by 9.8 percent next year, while cyclical spending will mitigate the erosion of non-cyclical ad sales for traditional media owners ,” the firm predicted in its report.
pricing supply,” Magna warned. It continues to forecast a 2023 national TV ad revenue drop of 3.9 percent, followed by a 2024 decline of 3.2 percent, compared to its previous projection for a 2.2 percent decrease. What does this add up to? “Total cross-platform national TV ad revenues will thus shrink by just 0.7 percent next year , to $46.4 billion,” the ad prognosticator’s report concluded.
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