A flawed democracy could tip into full-blown autocracy. Turkey is on the brink of disaster under its increasingly erratic president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan
’s second-biggest armed forces. It plays a crucial role in a turbulent neighbourhood, especially in war-scorched Syria. It exerts growing influence in the western Balkans, in the eastern Mediterranean and more recently in Africa. Above all, it is important in the Black Sea and in Russia’s war in Ukraine; last year it helped broker a deal to let more Ukrainian grain be shipped to a hungry world.
When he first became prime minister in March 2003, Mr Erdogan held out much promise for Turkey. Secularists feared that he had an excessively Islamist agenda, but he and his Justice and Development party have not got far in pursuing it. In its early years Mr Erdogan’s government gave new economic and political stability to a country that had for decades lacked either. He defanged the generals who had too often meddled in politics and mounted coups. He brought in reforms to boost the economy.
Voters, especially in cities, are pushing back. Three years ago Mr Erdogan’s party lost the mayoral elections in the three biggest cities of Ankara, Istanbul and Izmir. Polls suggest he could lose the presidency in four months, if the opposition unites behind its best candidate and the election is more or less clean.
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