President Donald Trump enjoys a “narrow advantage” in the 2020 election thanks to a built-in incumbency advantage and an economic tailwind, partly offset by...
Donald Trump holds a “narrow advantage” over any future rival in the 2020 election, according to economists at Goldman Sachs, but it has less to do with the stock market than the president’s Twitter account might indicate.
The Goldman analysis noted, however, that, in keeping with past findings, the performance of the stock market and other “market-based variables,” such as oil prices, are less important than other factors, including income, employment and consumption . When it comes to the relationship between the economy and elections, the Goldman economists noted that change is generally more important than the level of most economic statistics, including headline-grabbing statistics like the unemployment rate.
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