Wildfires, flooding, algae blooms – many tourists in Europe and further afield experienced extreme conditions this summer. What might the future hold? Researchers have already begun studying what climate change might have in store for the tourism industry's future.
Not all German schoolchildren are back from the summer holidays yet. And all those in the country who can plan their travels to avoid the school break are still looking forward to their vacations in September and October – to the olive groves, palm trees, seaside promenades and antique wonders of the Mediterranean. Or to the mountains of Austria, with the lush Alpine meadows, the cozy inns and crystal-clear water.
And the over 8,000-kilometer-long sargassum belt in the Atlantic? That, too, is a product of climate change. Higher water temperatures promote the growth of the stinking algae. During the coronavirus pandemic, revenues plummeted, but they quickly recovered once travel restrictions were lifted. According to WTTC, the travel sector again contributed 7.6 percent to global gross national product in 2022 and now provides jobs directly or indirectly to almost 300 million people. Furthermore, with China having lifted its restrictions later than other countries, the world is experiencing yet another vacation boom.
In the case of Sicily, her calculations were clear: Average high temperatures in late July were over 38 degrees Celsius – almost 2 degrees higher than in 1950. Germany's TUI, one of the largest travel companies in the world, reports that lodgings on the island of Rhodes, which became available through cancellations and re-bookings in the wake of the fire, were quickly sold again. The Mediterranean remains the favored vacation region for people around Europe, including the Germans. Sand, beach and sun – even if temperatures might climb above 40 degrees Celsius every now and then.
In the study, she and her team examined a number of different scenarios, from a moderate increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius – which has already been reached in parts of the Mediterranean region and is likely to become global reality by the early 2030s – to an increase of 3 to 4 degrees. This worst-case scenario, though, is only likely in the second half of the century if the climate protection measures that have already been agreed to are ignored or revoked.
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