Free picks for MLB prop bets on September 1, swinging at today's MLB props and giving our best MLB prop picks, predictions, and baseball bets.
starter Jordan Lyles will trot out to the mound today and get his usual 90-plus pitches regardless of how the outing goes. The veteran pitcher has a 7.71 ERA over his last seven starts with 48 hits allowed over 39 innings, but has still averaged 93 pitches per start.
The right-hander has allowed three or more earned runs in all seven of those starts and is likely going to get hit around again today vs. a Boston offense that sits in the Top 10 in wRC+ and wOBA over the last 30 days. THE BAT is projecting 3.65 earned runs, which is the second-most of any starting pitcher on the board today behind only Chris Flexen at Coors. The price is falling on his Over 2.5 earned runs, which was at -135 at bet365 this morning but has shortened up to -140 at the time of writing. Considering the form, matchup, and projection, this is a high win-probability play and one that still shows value even at -155.
If this bottom of this market falls out, a solid pivot is to his Over 5.5 hits allowed at -120 or better, which is a play we gave out this morning on THE BAT X release show.
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