The Blue Jays have absolutely no value on the moneyline against the pitiful Tigers with Alek Manoah on the mound. So we're getting creative with MLB betting markets, and have found some great picks for tonight.
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.In baseball, we are often faced with a position of laying heavy juice on a dominant pitching matchup. That's the situation we have with the Toronto Blue Jays today. For full disclosure, my projections are seeing value on the Tigers. They say they should be played down to around +210, and you can find a much better price on them than that.
This is relatively simple for me. We all know about Alek Manoah and what he can do at the mound. Yes, there’s the urge to be tempted by a price north of +300, but there's nearly no justification for backing it. The Tigers average the fewest runs per game in baseball. On the road, that number gets worse, falling to around 2.5 runs per game. So, how do we expect them to score enough against Manaoh to give themselves a chance? We can't.
On the flip side, our little data on Garcia reveals that he has issues with the sinker. That's terrible news for him against this Toronto lineup. They've hit everything in sight lately, but they've mainly been good against the sinker. Today's lineup will feature six players — yes, six — batting over .300 on the season against it. That includes red-hot bats such as Alejandro Kirk and Matt Chapman.
We can't fade Toronto in this spot — they will roll. So, we're looking at the alternative market as a source of value and are taking the -2.5 spread.
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