Inflation is set to peak, but activity is set to decline. Here's how a fund driven by a macroeconomic model is set up.
The Deuterium Global Dynamic Allocation Fund is what its fund managers like to say is a glass, rather than black, box. It’s built around a macroeconomic model that forecasts a host of economic variables across multiple countries, and then combined with separate models for central bank policy, market valuation and price trends.
And what it’s now projecting is some good and bad news. The good news is its model forecasts that inflation is right around its peak. “The important thing is that it won’t be accelerating from here,” said John Ricciardi, the lead manager of the fund and head of global asset allocation at the firm. “We think that investors are quite frightened of higher prices, more aggressive central bank tightening and elevated recession risks, and they will lessen as CPI flattens.
As for the coming Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday, the focus will be more on the commentary from the central bank than the likely decision to hike by 75 basis points. “If you look at the forward-looking indicators, including the PMIs and the announcement of many job cuts than have been happening in the tech sector, it’s all bad,” said Modhvadia.
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