OPINION: “Long-term inflation expectations, expansive European spending and fresh threats to trade integration could make the next business cycle very different from the last.'
Rocky stock and bond markets are struggling to price in this spring’s three biggest economic shocks: commodity price spikes from Russia sanctions, slowing Chinese demand amid fresh lockdowns and the Federal Reserve’s sharp, hawkish turn.
On current numbers, the U.S. economy still looks robust with workers enjoying good wage growth and ample savings buffers. Spending still looks healthy, and the latest PMI surveys record strong activity even if they reflect some worries over rising prices. The longer the Fed takes to bring prices under control, the greater the risk of higher wages driving higher prices in an upward spiral. Tight commodity markets and slow normalization of supply chains predate the Ukraine invasion and may signal something more enduring is afoot.
Market expectations about long-term European spending discipline—and euro area price stability—could easily slip, too.
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