There is a 50% chance of temperatures exceeding 2 degrees Celsius unless climate pledges are strictly implemented: Study

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There is a 50% chance of temperatures exceeding 2 degrees Celsius unless climate pledges are strictly implemented: Study
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Countries around the world will need to do more than make lofty climate promises — they will need to keep them to actually keep them to prevent global temperatures from getting to catastrophic levels.

In the five years preceding COP26, 153 parties to the 2015 Paris Agreement submitted new or updated climate mitigation goals for 2030, and 75 parties provided longer-term targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. But analyses of updated pledges made before COP26 suggest there was still a higher than 50% chance of temperatures exceeding 2 degrees Celsius, which would push global temperatures past the point that any human civilization in history has experienced.

The authors estimated that if all pledges are implemented in full and on time, peak warming could be limited to 1.9 to 2 degrees Celsius -- still above the conservative figure established by the Paris Agreement at 1.5 degrees Celsius. However, chances are still low, experts say. Long-term targets should be treated with"skepticism" if they are not supported by short-term commitments to put countries on a pathway to meet those targets in the next decade, the researchers said. Otherwise, the world is going to"blast through the remaining admission carbon budget for 1.5 degrees just this decade," Malte Meinshausen, a climate scientist at the University of Melbourne and one of the authors of the study, said during a press briefing on Tuesday.

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