There Could Be Four Hostile Civilizations in the Milky Way universetoday storybywill
, Caballero addresses this issue by conducting a statistical analysis of possible hostile civilizations in our galaxy and the possibility that one or more of these would detect signals coming from Earth . Because radio antennas and radar constantly leak signals into space, Cabellero felt a risk evaluation was necessary.
“I based the estimation on the frequency of invasions on Earth in the last 100 years. Only 51 countries out of the 195 invaded another country. I found that as time goes by and humanity develops, the frequency of invasions decreases. Extrapolating the results to humanity once it becomes a Type-1 civilization capable of interstellar travel, the frequency and therefore probability of invasion goes down. The estimations are based on life as we know it.
In addition, Caballero turned this same analysis towards humanity and the possibility that we might become a “malicious civilization” once we’ve become a Type-1 civilization on the Kardashev Scale. A civilization at this level of development would be capable of harnessing all of its planet’s energy and limited a measure of interstellar travel – to nearby star systems. His analysis showed that a maximum of four malicious civilizations would be within earshot of our transmissions.
“The low risk estimated, lower than the impact probability of a planet-killer asteroid, could support METI efforts. SETI is necessary, but it’s like looking for a needle in a haystack. If we really want to have chances of ET contact, we need to start broadcasting laser messages to thousands of exoplanets. Whether we should do it or not depends on what the international community says.”
Statistically speaking, METI may not constitute the existential risk that some say it could. Certainly not more than threats that are much closer to home. This, according to Caballero, also raises the important question of whether intelligent civilizations are more likely to