As the liberal global order breaks down, how far will America intervene in conflicts abroad?
“The ships are the book-ends of the war,” says James Neuman, the official historian of Pearl Harbour’s naval base. “Their legacy is with us every single day.” Families of deceased veterans still come to scatter their ashes in the water. Some 30 survivors of the attack attended a ceremony this week to mark its 80th anniversary.
Admittedly, much is different from eight decades ago. The spread of nuclear weapons makes great-power conflict more terrifying and less likely. The configuration of global alliances has shifted: Japan and Germany are firmly in the American camp; China and Russia are moving closer together. And after decades of globalisation, the world is more interdependent economically.
The prime venue for such thinking is the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, a think-tank in Washington set up in 2019 with money from both Charles Koch, a generous funder of right-wing causes, and George Soros, a supporter of liberal internationalist groups. Quincy cheered the withdrawal from Afghanistan. “We were very much heartened by Biden’s decision,” says Andrew Bacevich, its president. He urges Mr Biden to leave the Middle East next.
Several of the Biden administration’s important national-security policies remain in gestation. It has not yet issued a national-security strategy, and its nuclear “posture” is under review. Matters are not helped by the fact that many important jobs in national security and the diplomatic corps remain empty.Mr Biden’s interim national-security guidance, issued in March, emphasises economic regeneration at home as the foundation of American power abroad. It is long on global menaces.
Indirect talks between America and Iran resumed in Vienna in late November. But the process is already faltering as American officials accuse Iran of not negotiating seriously. Mr Biden has vowed that Iran will not obtain a nuclear weapon on his watch. Officials have warned they will soon pursue “other options”. Would that include military action to destroy nuclear facilities? America has been reluctant to threaten it openly, as Israel has done.
But the speeches and reports by successive commanders paint a darkening picture. China, they say, is arming faster than most had predicted and has more warships than the American navy. It is developing the wherewithal to invade Taiwan, which it regards as its own territory, and to fend off any American forces that might come to its defence. At their summit, Mr Xi warned Mr Biden about meddling in Taiwan: “Whoever plays with fire will get burnt.