The risk that the war in Ukraine escalates past the nuclear threshold

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The risk that the war in Ukraine escalates past the nuclear threshold
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But Russia and NATO both field “non-strategic” or “tactical” nuclear weapons which do much less damage than the city-destroying ones mounted on intercontinental ballistic missiles

Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskHerman Kahn, one of several inspirations for the title character of Stanley Kubrick’s unmatched treatise on deterrence, “Dr Strangelove”, devised a 44-rung escalation ladder with which to study and analyse the phenomenon. The step from rung nine to ten , he noted, was the one which marked the point at which nuclear war ceased to be unthinkable.

Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, has been keen to remind his adversaries of the nuclear risks. In a televised speech at the beginning of the Russian invasion he warned foreign powers who might try to hinder the advance of “consequences that you have never encountered in your history”. On February 27th, after the imposition of unprecedented banking sanctions by Western countries , Mr Putin gave an order that the country’s “deterrence forces” be transferred to a “special mode of combat duty”.

The availability of these weapons is part of what makes the second, indirect, route to the use of nuclear arms frightening. This involves Mr Putin broadening the conflict into one in whichforces are directly involved in a way that they have so far resisted—not least because of the nuclear risk inherent in such a confrontation.member state, such as Romania or Poland. Russian spies have covertly attacked such depots in Bulgaria and the Czech Republic in recent years.

Whatever chain of events might bring it about, the irradiation of even a sliver of Ukraine would be a shocking moment for Europe and the world. Western governments would face enormous pressure to respond. Yet to attack Russia in kind would be to invite further nuclear use against American and European cities . Khan had 15 further rungs in which the adversaries traded forces and cities with ever more abandon.

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