The extent of newly exposed ocean is the size of Argentina
on February 19th—the smallest extent since satellite-based data became available in 1978—few climatologists were surprised. Such records fall frequently in a warming world, as they did at the same time of year in 2017 and 2022. In March ice cover in the Antarctic began bouncing back at a rate of 70,000 kmHowever, between April and June the ice did not recover as expected, with a growth rate around 15% lower than normal.
It is too early to tell whether the Antarctic seas’ exceptional failure to freeze over represents an unusual confluence of temporary factors; a new normal driven by climate change; or something in between. One of the leading short-term explanations is unusual patterns of wind and waves. Throughout June and July, gusts travelling from the Bellingshausen Sea towards the South Pole prevented ice from forming near the Antarctic Peninsula.
Warmer waters could also have played a role. Recent research suggests that since 2016, an increase in the Southern Ocean’s average temperature has caused Antarctic sea ice to shrink. This pattern may stem from overall atmospheric warming, but could also result from variation in normal cycles of heat transfer between deep and shallow parts of the ocean.
Even if ice cover eventually returns to recent norms, however, its vanishing act this year aligns with scientists’ long-run expectations. Based on current forecasts for global air temperatures, climate models predict that the extent of Antarctic sea ice will shrink during the second half of the century. And although the disappearance of floating sea ice does not affect sea levels directly, it could accelerate the loss of glaciers on land.
Sea ice helps keep the edges of Antarctica cool. White ice reflects sunlight, reducing the amount of energy absorbed by the ocean and thus lowering both air and water temperatures. Moreover, the ring of sea ice around Antarctica holds in place the continent’s coastal ice shelves, which in turn do the same for its glaciers and ice sheets.
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