Analysis: There’s a reason he’s using such a blunt tool, and both Democrats and Republicans share the blame
economic argument for the United States: The rules that China negotiates in its own trade deals overlapped considerably with the American proposal, meaning that the TPP was more a matter of diplomatic gamesmanship than a real plan to advance workers here at home
To politicians like Obama, raised in the heyday of global free-market consensus, government industrial policy is a thing of the past, and trade relationships are really just a matter of opening as many markets as possible—regardless of whether the benefits actually outweigh the losses for a given country. The evidence now strongly suggests that consensus has been wrong.
With Trump's election, it's now acceptable to at least name the problems the US has confronted on the world stage, ranging from coercive Chinese requirements over our manufacturers to corporations invoking their global supply-chain decisions as a reason we can’t fundamentally rethink U.S. trading rules. But Trump’s solutions to those problems suffer just as much from an absence of creative ambition.
The threat from China makes these issues even more urgent. With the launch of its "Made in China 2025" industrial strategy, where China pledges to attain dominance in key industrial sectors, the U.S. faces a major competitor that does not feel bound by post-war liberal market norms. In a relatively high-tariff environment, such as the global economy of the mid-20century, the U.S. could dangle market access as a carrot in order to entice other countries to get on board with U.S.
So there is a certain logic to Trump’s jacking up of trade duties in order to fashion new bargains. The problem is, the Trumpists also struggle to develop new ideas on how to do it, starting with a slim menu of tariffs and tax cuts. In February, Rubiothat dutifully catalogues China’s illiberal plans for industrial supremacy, and rightly notes that “The critical policy consideration, then, is not whether states should organize their economies, but how they should be organized.
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